If everyone had decent meaningful jobs, the rally maidans would be largely empty and, save for the Akhara babas and curious foreigners and the devout senior citizens, not very many would spare time for the Kumbh Mela, says Mahesh Vyas.
'If the 7 million estimate is true, then either our understanding of the past was all wrong or the economy has changed dramatically but so surreptitiously that we did not even notice it,' says Mahesh Vyas.
The Union Budget seems to have elicited a starkly opposite view from rural India compared to urbanites, says Mahesh Vyas.
The key to job creation is to increase labour participation - draw more people into the labour force and to provide them formal jobs in the organised sectors. Self-employment is not job creation, says, Mahesh Vyas.
Hopefully, the small recovery in the labour force and employment seen in the September-December 2017 wave will gather momentum in the coming waves, says Mahesh Vyas.The challenge, says Mahesh Vyas, is to find the corresponding jobs for these aspirants.
More people felt optimistic about their economic condition in November than in the same month a year ago, says Mahesh Vyas.
Can 3 crore out of the 8.9 crore young male population of the nine states set off on a pilgrimage that extends for about a month? If yes, then what can we infer regarding the state of the young working population in these states, asks Mahesh Vyas.
'The pipeline of new industrial projects is the best I've seen in the last 10 years, and it looks solid enough to sustain for at least a few quarters,' points out Naushad Forbes, adding, 'It is only when we get back to the same labour force participation we saw before Covid that the economy will have truly recovered.'
It is necessary that at least three million additional jobs (if not more) are created every year to ensure that there isn't an increase in the stock of unemployed, says Mahesh Vyas.
'In India, a large proportion of the labour force does not have a regular job.' 'People are mostly employed as daily wage workers, agricultural labourers, small farmers and self-employed traders.' 'These move in and out of "jobs" fairly rapidly.' 'It is the high proportion of these workers in India that makes unemployment volatile,' explains Mahesh Vyas.
India Inc closed FY15 on a positive note.
The country's demographic dividend is dissipating, with seriously adverse consequences for young India, asserts Shankar Acharya, former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India.
Concerned by the continuous downward revision in the monthly net enrolment numbers, the EPFO has begun counting people quitting their previous jobs and joining a new one as an addition to the net payroll. According to experts these people cannot be counted as those who got a new job.
Of late, war films -- particularly those that tell stories of the 1971 War and Kargil -- have been produced.
This is one of the largest monthly increases in the labour force, observes Mahesh Vyas.
Evidently, households see a brighter future after the Budget, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
Eighteen months after the economy was battered by the Covid-induced lockdown, employment has not recovered to its pre-pandemic levels, points out Mahesh Vyas.
A change in the desire to buy consumer durables is perhaps the most important indicator of an economy changing direction, explains Mahesh Vyas.
An overwhelming proportion of the unemployed declare their nature of occupation as students. In the quarter ended December 2021, 77% of the unemployed who were actively looking for jobs were students. This syncs well with another data, that 77% of the unemployed are between 15 and 24 years of age, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
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The elections held in April-May 2019 will be an important determinant of future growth and investment.
It was women who unambiguously bore the brunt of the lockdown joblessness, says Kanika Datta.
The steady rise through most of July implies a greater demand for jobs. And most of this demand is being met, says Mahesh Vyas.
The recent improvement in consumer sentiment is almost entirely a rural India story. Much of the corporate sector reposes faith in rural India to fuel its growth, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The fall in urban sentiments in June is worrisome, observes Mahesh Vyas.
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Only vaccinations can eliminate the threat of new waves, help raise sentiments and allow sellers and buyers to participate aggressively in the much awaited economic recovery, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The biggest worry is not the shrinking of the labour market, but the collapse of good jobs.
Vasan Bala's much applauded film will hit theatres on Friday.
Nothing in India's recent history suggests that India can provide 8-9 million jobs a year, let alone generate 50 million jobs in any reasonable time, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The lockdown has taught companies a lesson or two on running business with fewer human resources. These lessons are unlikely to be forgotten, observes Mahesh Vyas.
'Usually, urban wage rates are 50 per cent higher than rural wage rates. But, this could be narrowing very rapidly now,' points out Mahesh Vyas, CEO, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
The central government's deposits with the RBI had fallen to just Rs 100 crore as of June 8.
Users of employment / unemployment statistics can enjoy the benefits of -- initially the speed of private enterprise and then, the stamp of official statistics with a hopefully small time lag, says Mahesh Vyas.
Referring to differences between Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray and Governor B S Koshyari over various issues, the Bombay high court on said Wednesday it was "unfortunate" that the two highest constitutional functionaries in the state "did not trust each other".
The 30-day moving average of the unemployment rate had climbed up much ahead by January 6, to 7.8%, says Mahesh Vyas.
The study says the entire supply chain of goods and services will suffer a massive liquidity shock.
'Falling labour participation rate is common in the ageing populations of the developed world.' 'But India is a country with a young population.' 'It is imperative that the labour participation increases.' 'We need a larger labour force to increase our per capita income level,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
Rising unemployment rate reflects a rise in the labour participation rate, which in India's case has been worryingly low.
'Of the 9.5 million unemployed who stopped looking for jobs, nearly seven million were young.' 'Is it possible that the young decided to continue with studies rather than look for jobs?' asks Mahesh Vyas.
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